Russ Beattie shares my view that Google's war chest could buy a slice of--or the whole shooting match--of AOL. Russ writes:
"Google, it seems, would be the most obvious suitor to me. They need everything that AOL already has in order to continue to compete in the online media space. Yeah, they have their Search cash-cow at the moment, but that's an undefensible lead. The switching costs for someone to move from Google to Yahoo! Search are nil - I should know, I've done it, I rarely use Google now and there was no real penalty involved in switching. Google is essentially an advertising company and needs to keep expanding its online media business, or get caught by competitors in the Search space and not have a backup. Snagging AOL would bring along some great assets that Google really needs, including the Netscape name (and campus down the street from Google in Mt. View), AIM, AOL Mail, AOL Mobile, multimedia assets, tons of content and tons of community services as well. Hell, what else is Google going to do with $4b in cash lying around?"
My sentiments, exactly, Russ!
Addendeum: Back in the day (2000) the Netscape team wanted AOL to buy Google but one of the very senior executives didn't think AOL users would ever care about the Internet or web search, so they didn't try to buy the company. They did, however, invest about $10MM, a flyer that paid off handsomely when Google went public.
There would be something poetic about Google buying AOL now, doncha think?
Via Reuters: "Low ball estimates for AOL are about $10 billion with improvements possibly doubling that valuation, Richard Greenfield, an analyst at Fulcrum Global Partners said."
Financially, Google is still a tiny baby. They just have a lot of buzz-generating capability. But, buzz isn't cash.
Great point,Dossy--let's see what develops.
If this is true, get ready for the biggest culture clash of Ph.D.s and MBAs of all time! ;-)